# Austin Housing Market Report: January 2022, What Rising Rates Do to What You Can Afford

> The Austin metro median sale price was $485,990 in January 2022, +31.2% year over year, with homes selling in 35 days and 1.6 months of supply. What Rising Rates Do to What You Can Afford, what the numbers mean if you are buying or selling in Austin.

Mike Vilece · February 15, 2022
Canonical page: https://theaustinlocalgroup.com/blog/austin-housing-market-january-2022/

The median single-family home in the Austin metro sold for **$485,990** in January 2022, up 31.2% year over year. Homes took a median of 35 days to sell. Active inventory stood at 3,127 listings, up 17.6% year over year. The share selling above asking was 48%. That made it a seller's market.

## Austin market statistics, January 2022

| Metric | January 2022 |
| --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $485,990 (+31.2% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $244 (+32.7% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 1,954 (-5.2% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,234 |
| Active inventory | 3,127 (+17.6% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.6 |
| Median days on market | 35 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 101.6% |
| Sold above asking | 47.9% |
| Listings with a price cut | 9.8% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.45% |

## What Rising Rates Do to What You Can Afford

Forty-eight percent of January sales closed above list and the median hit $486,000. Rates had already climbed from 3.1% to about 3.6% and were being ignored. The arithmetic: at $500,000 with 20% down, going from 3% to 5% adds roughly $470 a month. That is not a rounding error.

## What changed since December 2021

The median rose $5,990 from December 2021, a 1.2% move. Time on market held flat, to 35. Active inventory shrank by 348 listings, to 3,127. The share of homes selling over asking gained 1.5 points, to 47.9%.

One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.

## Where this month sits in the cycle

| | January 2022 | December 2021 | January 2021 | Since Oct 2016 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $485,990 | $480,000 | $370,500 | range $255,626–$495,000 |
| Median days on market | 35 | 35 | 35 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 3,127 | 3,475 | 2,660 | range 2,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | range 0.9–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 48% | 46% | 50% | range 14%–75% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.45% | 3.1% | 2.73% | range 2.68%–4.87% |

The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where January 2022 falls against every month that came before it.

## If you are buying in Austin right now

1.6 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.

The average sale closed **above** asking, at 101.6% of list. Offering under list was, statistically, not a strategy that month.

**The payment math.** At $485,990 with 20% down at 3.45%, principal and interest runs about **$1,735 a month**. Add roughly $810 for property taxes and $324 for insurance and you are near **$2,869 a month** all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.

**If you are selling:** you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 35 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.

## Neighborhood in focus

**Deep South Austin (78745).** Cherry Creek, Garrison Park, Manchaca. Known for value, access, first-time buyers. It fits first-time buyers and young families.

The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Deep South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at [/neighborhoods/deep-south-austin/](/neighborhoods/deep-south-austin/), including what is wrong with it.

## On in Austin, January 2022

| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Jan 17 | **MLK Day March**, UT campus to Huston-Tillotson, east | The march runs from campus east along MLK. Central and east street closures for the morning, and a poor Monday for showings along the route. |

## What is coming next

The Federal Reserve's first rate increase, expected in March. Tesla's Giga Texas opening in April.

## Common questions

### How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?

At $485,990 with 20% down at 3.45%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $2,869 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around **$115,000**. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.

### When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?

October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.

### What is the average home price in Austin?

The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in January 2022 was $485,990. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.

### Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?

In January 2022, a seller's market, 1.6 months of supply, with 48% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 0.9 months in December 2020 to 3.8 in January 2019.

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*Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers January 2022; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.*

*Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.*

*Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, [ask me directly](/#contact).*

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